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TABLE 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 157

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-12, in testing the significance of the coefficient of X in the regression equation (0.012) which has a p-value of 0.0000. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

Definitions:

Market Irrationality

Occurrences when financial markets make movements that are inconsistent with the underlying economic fundamentals, sometimes leading to asset price bubbles or crashes.

Rational Risk Premia

The additional return required by investors for taking on additional risk in a rational and calculated manner.

Proprietary Wealth

Wealth that is owned and controlled by an individual or a company, often in the context of investments or intellectual property.

Market Rate of Return

The average rate of return expected by investors from a market or security index over a specific time period.