TABLE 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast the Forecast

question 2

Multiple Choice

TABLE 16-14
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2008 to 2010. The following is the resulting regression equation:
ln Ŷ = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q₁ + 1.28 Q₂ + 0.617 Q₃
where Ŷ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Table 16-14, using the regression equation, which of the following values is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the second quarter of 2012?

• A) 144,212
• B) 391,742
• C) 1,238,797
• D) 4,355,119

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Definitions:

Visible Minority Members

Individuals who belong to a racial or ethnic minority that can be distinguished from the majority through visible characteristics.

Discrimination

Unfair or prejudicial treatment of people or groups based on characteristics such as race, gender, age, or sexual orientation.

Ecological Fallacy

The error of assuming that a generalized cultural or social statistic applies to all individuals within a group.

Post-colonial Theory

An intellectual discourse that analyzes, explains, and responds to the cultural legacy of colonialism and imperialism, focusing on the human consequences of the control and exploitation of colonized people and their lands.