The Management Team at Colston

question 48

Multiple Choice

The management team at Colston.com predicts that if the economy continues to grow at the current rate, there is a 95% probability that the company will see at least a 40% increase in revenue this year.If the economy slows, that probability drops to 30%, but if it accelerates, the probability increases to 99%.The Wall Street Journal believes that there is a 60% chance that the economy will continue to grow at the current rate, a 25% chance that it will slow, and a 15% chance that it will accelerate.Use this information to estimate the likelihood that Colston.com will show at least a 40% increase in profits this year.

• A).6652
• B).5597
• C).8447
• D).6132
• E).7935