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John Is Trying to Decide Whether to Expand His Business

question 92

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John is trying to decide whether to expand his business or not. If he continues his business as it is, with no expansion, there is a 50 percent chance his revenue will be $100,000 and a 50 percent chance his revenue will be $300,000. If he does expand, it will cost him $150,000, and there is a 30 percent chance his revenue will be $100,000; a 30 percent chance his revenue will be $300,000; and a 40 percent chance his revenue will be $500,000.What is the difference in expected earnings if John chooses to expand versus not expand?


Definitions:

Avoidance Response

A behavior that aims to prevent the occurrence of an unpleasant experience or situation by avoiding the stimulus that leads to it.

Unconditioned Response

An innate, involuntary response to a stimulus that happens without any previous education or conditioning.

Rowdy

Behaving in a noisy, disorderly, and often disruptive manner, typically as a part of a group or gathering.

Reinforcement

In psychology, a process by which the likelihood of a behavior is increased through the administration of positive stimuli (rewards) or the removal of negative stimuli.

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