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Two Professors at a Nearby University Want to Coauthor a New

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Two professors at a nearby university want to coauthor a new textbook in either economics or statistics. They feel that if they write an economics book, they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should ultimately sell about 40,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, then they feel they have an 80 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 30,000 copies. On the other hand, if they write a statistics book, they feel they have a 40 percent chance of placing it with a major publisher, and it should result in ultimate sales of about 50,000 copies. If they cannot get a major publisher to take it, they feel they have a 50 percent chance of placing it with a smaller publisher, with ultimate sales of 35,000 copies.
What is the probability that the statistics book would wind up being placed with a smaller publisher?


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