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In a Carnival Shell Game, a Contestant Can Win a Prize

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In a carnival shell game, a contestant can win a prize by guessing which one of 5 identical walnut shells is covering a small marble.After each guess, the shells are randomly shuffled outside the view of the contestant.If a person plays the carnival game 4 times, what is the probability he or she wins a prize exactly 2 times? In a carnival shell game, a contestant can win a prize by guessing which one of 5 identical walnut shells is covering a small marble.After each guess, the shells are randomly shuffled outside the view of the contestant.If a person plays the carnival game 4 times, what is the probability he or she wins a prize exactly 2 times?


Definitions:

Parmenides

A pre-Socratic Greek philosopher who argued that reality is unchangeable, and all change is an illusion.

Unreal

Something that is imagined or fantasized and not found in reality; often used in discussions of philosophy, fiction, and art.

Unchanging

Remaining the same over time; not subject to change, variation, or alteration.

Hegel's Idealism

A philosophical approach by Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel emphasizing that reality is constructed by the mind and that the material world is an expression of ideas.

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