A Time Series for the Years 1990-1995 Is Shown Below

question 81

Essay

A time series for the years 1990-1995 is shown below. $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & y _ { t } \\\hline 2010 & 125 \\2011 & 115 \\2012 & 120 \\2013 & 126 \\2014 & 140 \\2015 & 122 \\\hline\end{array}$$ a. Develop forecasts for the years 2016-2018, with the following smoothing constant values:
w = 0.2, w = 0.5 and w = 0.6.
b. Compare each of the three sets of forecasts above with the actual values for 2016-2018 given in the following table, and compute the MAD for each model. Which model is best? $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & y _ { t } \\\hline 2016 & 130 \\2017 & 125 \\2018 & 135 \\\hline\end{array}$$

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Definitions:

Moral Treatment Movement

A historical movement in mental health care emphasizing humane and respectful treatment of individuals with mental illness, originating in the 18th and 19th centuries.

Asylums

Historically, institutions for the care of people who were mentally ill, which have largely been replaced by modern psychiatric hospitals.

Mental Health Professionals

Individuals specializing in diagnosing, treating, and preventing mental health disorders, including psychologists, psychiatrists, counselors, and social workers.

General Paresis

Disease that leads to paralysis, insanity, and eventually death; discovery of this disease helped establish a connection between biological diseases and mental disorders.