Fifty-Five Percent of Registered Voters in a Congressional District Are $\alpha = 0.05$

question 27

Essay

Fifty-five percent of registered voters in a congressional district are registered Democrats. The Republican
candidate takes a poll to assess his chances in a two-candidate race. He polls 1200 potential voters and finds
that 621 plan to vote for the Republican candidate. Does the Republican candidate have a chance to win? Use $\alpha = 0.05$

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Definitions:

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Lost-Horse Forecast

A humorous term for predictions made after the outcome is already known, often with a pretense of accuracy.