SCENARIO 16-12 a Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model

question 113

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-12 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation: where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter. X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008. is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Scenario 16-12, to obtain the fitted value for the first quarter of 2013 using the model, which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

• A)X = 16,
• B)X = 16,
• C)X = 17,
• D)X = 17,

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Definitions:

Actual Value

The true or factual value of a variable or quantity, without estimation or error.

Estimated Value

An approximation of the worth of something, often used in the context of potential outcomes in decision making or investment.

Inverse Relationship

A relationship between two variables in which one variable increases as the other decreases.

Independent Variable

A variable that is manipulated to observe its effect on a dependent variable in an experiment.