SCENARIO 16-12 A Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 66

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-12
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 5-year period from 2009 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log₁₀ Y^ˆ = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q₁ - 0.054 Q₂ + 0.098 Q₃
where
Y^ˆ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter.
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Time-Series Forecasting 16-31
-Referring to Scenario 16-12,the estimated quarterly compound growth rate in revenues is around:

• A)1.2%.
• B)2.8%.
• C)12%.
• D)28%.

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Definitions:

Min Per-unit Costs

The lowest possible cost of producing one unit of good or service, achieved through efficient use of resources and optimal production scale.

Employee Shirking

Refers to employees putting in less effort than agreed upon or expected, often when they believe their lack of effort will not be noticed or punished.

Specialization

The process of focusing on and becoming expert in a particular area of production or knowledge to increase efficiency.

Falling Costs

A situation where the expenses associated with producing a good or service decrease, often leading to lower prices for consumers.