SCENARIO 16-13 Given Below Is the Monthly Time Series Data for U.S.retail

question 130

Short Answer

SCENARIO 16-13
Given below is the monthly time series data for U.S.retail sales of building materials over a specific year.
The results of the linear trend,quadratic trend,exponential trend,first-order autoregressive,second-order autoregressive and third-order autoregressive model are presented below in which the coded month for the 1^st month is 0:
Linear trend model:

Quadratic trend model:
Third-order autoregressive::

Below is the residual plot of the various models:

-Referring to Scenario 16-13,if a five-month moving average is used to smooth this series,what would be the first calculated value?

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Definitions:

Behaviourism

A theoretical orientation based on the premise that scientific psychology should study only observable behavior and investigates how organisms learn new behaviors or modify existing ones, depending on whether events in their environments reward or punish these behaviors.

Unconscious

A part of the mind that hosts thoughts, memories, and desires not present in conscious awareness, influencing behavior and decisions.

Sigmund Freud

An Austrian neurologist and the founder of psychoanalysis, a method for treating psychopathology through dialogue between a patient and a psychoanalyst.

Reinforcement Techniques

Methods used in behaviorism to increase or decrease the likelihood of a specific behavior by adding or removing stimuli following the behavior.