SCENARIO 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 27

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-14 A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2011 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation: where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter. X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2011. is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. Q is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Scenario 16-14 , the best interpretation of the constant 3.37 in the regression equation is:

• A)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2011, prior to seasonal adjustment, is l 3.37.
• B)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2011, after to seasonal adjustment, is
• C)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2011, prior to seasonal adjustment, is 1
• D)the fitted value for the first quarter of 2011, after to seasonal adjustment, is 1

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