SCENARIO 16-14 a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 87

Multiple Choice

SCENARIO 16-14 A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2011 to 2013.The following is the resulting regression equation: where is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter. X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2011. is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. Q is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Scenario 16-14, to obtain a forecast for the first quarter of 2014 using the model, which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

• A)X = 12,
• B)X = 12,
• C)X = 13, Q
• D)X = 13,

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