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Suppose You Negotiate a One-Year Loan with a Principal of $1000

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Essay

Suppose you negotiate a one-year loan with a principal of $1000 and the nominal interest rate is currently 7%. You expect the inflation rate to be 3% over the next year. When you repay the principal plus interest at the end of the year, the actual inflation rate is 2.5%. Compute the ex ante and ex post real interest rate. Who benefits from this unexpected decrease in inflation? Who loses?


Definitions:

Relative Comparisons

The act of evaluating something in relation to another similar item.

Availability Heuristic

A cognitive shortcut that relies on the immediate examples that come to a person’s mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision.

Representative Heuristic

A mental shortcut that involves making a probability judgement by comparing an object or event to a prototype of the object or event.

Additive Strategy

An approach where elements are added together to solve problems or make decisions, often seen in mathematics or decision-making processes.

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