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Assume the Expectations Hypothesis Regarding the Term Structure of Interest

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Assume the expectations hypothesis regarding the term structure of interest rates is correct. Then, if the current two-year interest rate is 5% and the current one-year rate is 6%, then investors expect the future one-year rate to be:


Definitions:

Rational Expectations

The theory that people optimally use all the information they have, including information about government policies, when forecasting the future.

Sacrifice Ratio

A measure of the economic cost associated with reducing inflation, often calculated as the percentage loss in output per percentage point decrease in inflation.

Inflation Expectations

The anticipation by consumers and businesses of the rate at which prices will rise in the future.

Phillips Curve

An economic theory suggesting an inverse relationship between the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment within an economy.

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