Messenger Service Three Messenger Services Deliver to a Small Town

question 147

Essay

Messenger Service Three messenger services deliver to a small town in Oregon. Service A has 60% of all the scheduled deliveries, service B has 30%, and service C has the remaining 10%. Their on-time rates are 80%, 60%, and 40% respectively. Define event O as a service delivers a package on time. {Messenger Service Narrative} If a package was delivered 40 minutes late, what is the probability that it was service  B ?

---

Definitions:

Moral Hazard

Moral hazard occurs when a party is more likely to take risks because the negative consequences of the risk will be borne by another party.

Present Value

The present-day worth of a forthcoming sum of money or cash inflows, assessed at an agreed-upon return rate.

Interest Rate

The percentage charged on a loan or paid on savings, indicating the cost of borrowing or the reward for saving.

Price To Earnings Ratios

A financial metric that measures a company's current share price relative to its per-share earnings, used to evaluate its relative value.