A State's Population for 2016 Was Estimated at 4,000,000

question 10

Multiple Choice

A state's population for 2016 was estimated at 4,000,000.  At the beginning of the same year, the state reported having 20,000 cases of a rare and fatal neurodegenerative condition.  At the end of 2016, the state reported 7,000 new cases, as well as 1,000 deaths attributable to this condition.  Another 40,000 deaths from all other causes were also reported at the end of the year.  What was the cumulative incidence of the disease in 2016?

• A)1,000 / 4,000,000
• B)6,000 / 3,980,000
• C)6,000 / 4,000,000
• D)7,000 / 3,980,000
• E)7,000 / 4,000,000
• F)26,000 / 3,959,000
• G)41,000 / 4,000,000

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Definitions:

Confirmation Bias

A cognitive bias that influences individuals to favor information or interpretations that confirm their preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.

Preconceptions

Preformed opinions or beliefs, often without basis in fact or experience, that influence one's perception.

Availability Heuristic

A mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision.

Overconfidence

A cognitive bias where an individual's subjective confidence in their own abilities is greater than their objective accuracy.