On Critically Evaluating Inductive Arguments

question 268

Short Answer

On critically evaluating inductive arguments. Read the following arguments and carry out the instructions below.
-Consider this argument:
I've met four long-haul truckers, and all four were polite and well-mannered individuals. Therefore, the next one I meet will probably also be polite and well-mannered.
In each of the following cases, would the addition make the argument stronger or weaker? Or would it leave things unaffected?
a. All four listened exclusively to country music.
b. One was of Italian descent, one was of Polish descent, one was of Ethiopian descent, and one was of Japanese descent.
c. One of the four was from L.A., one was from New York, one was from Seattle, and one was from Alabama.
d. All four were from Seattle.
e. All four were in their thirties.
f. One was still in his teens, one was in his twenties, one was in his thirties, and one was over forty.
g. I've actually met eight, and all were polite and well-mannered.
h. I met an additional long-haul trucker, and he was polite.
i. I met an additional long-haul trucker, and he was well-mannered.
j. I met an additional long-haul trucker, and he was rude and crude.
k. I change the conclusion to: All long-haul truckers are polite and well-mannered.

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Definitions:

Simple Linear Regression

Simple linear regression is a method for predicting a quantitative outcome using a single explanatory variable, based on the linear relationship between them.

Least Squares

A method in statistics for approximating the solution of overdetermined systems, by minimizing the differences between the observed and predicted values.

Simple Linear Regression

A statistical method used to model the relationship between a single independent variable and a dependent variable by fitting a linear equation to observed data.

Normally Distributed

A statistical distribution that is symmetrical about the mean, where most observations cluster around the central peak and the probabilities for values further away from the mean taper off equally in both directions.