The Impact of a 100 Meter Asteroid Could Kill Many

question 14

Multiple Choice

The impact of a 100 meter asteroid could kill many people if it struck a major city. Suppose the probability of such an impact in any single year is 1 in 1,000, and suppose we know (somehow) that it has been 1200 years since the last impact. What would that tell us?

• A) We are overdue for such an impact, so we should expect to be hit by something even larger during the next few years.
• B) The prediction must be wrong, since the time since the last impact has been 1200 years.
• C) We are now due for such an impact, so the actual probability for the coming year must be much higher than 1 in 1000.
• D) Nothing, we would still presume that the chance of such an impact during the next year is 1 in 1000.

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