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The following regression model was estimated to forecast the value of the Indian rupee (INR) :
Where INR is the quarterly change in the rupee, INT is the real interest rate differential in period t between the United States and India, and INF is the inflation rate differential between the United States and India in the previous period. Regression results indicate coefficients of a₀ = .003; a₁ = -.5; and a₂ = .8. Assume that INFt - 1 = 2 percent. However, the interest rate differential is not known at the beginning of period t and must be estimated. You have developed the following probability distribution:
The expected change in the Indian rupee in period t is:
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