Turkey in M&N Supermarket Has the Demand Pattern as Shown

question 91

Essay

Turkey in M&N supermarket has the demand pattern as shown in the table below. Find the ‛best' forecast you can for month 25 and justify your methodology. You may use some of the data to find the best parameter value(s) for your method and the rest to test the forecast model. Your justification should include both quantitative and qualitative considerations.
$$\begin{array} { | c | c | c | c | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } & \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \\\hline 1 & 33 & 13 & 37 \\\hline 2 & 37 & 14 & 43 \\\hline 3 & 31 & 15 & 56 \\\hline 4 & 39 & 16 & 41 \\\hline 5 & 54 & 17 & 36 \\\hline 6 & 38 & 18 & 39 \\\hline 7 & 42 & 19 & 41 \\\hline 8 & 40 & 20 & 58 \\\hline 9 & 41 & 21 & 42 \\\hline 10 & 54 & 22 & 45 \\\hline 11 & 43 & 23 & 41 \\\hline 12 & 39 & 24 & 38 \\\hline\end{array}$$

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Definitions:

Inductive Argument

A form of reasoning where the conclusion is supported by the premises but is not guaranteed to be true.

Deductive Argument

A logical process where the conclusion is based on the concordance of multiple premises that are generally considered to be true.

Conclusion

The final part of something, especially a summary of the arguments or a final decision reached after reasoning.

Cogent

An argument that is convincing or believable by virtue of clear, logical presentation.