The Director of a Large Library Must Schedule Employees to Reshelve

question 11

Essay

The director of a large library must schedule employees to reshelve books and periodicals checked out of the library to determine the labor requirements. The following data reflect the numbers of items checked out of the library for the past three years.
$$\begin{array} { | c | c | c | c | } \hline \text { Month } & \text { Year 1 } & \text { Year 2 } & \text { Year 3 } \\\hline \text { January } & 1,847 & 2,045 & 1,986 \\\hline \text { February } & 2,669 & 2,321 & 2,564 \\\hline \text { March } & 2,467 & 2,419 & 2,635 \\\hline \text { April } & 2,432 & 2,088 & 2,150 \\\hline \text { May } & 2,464 & 2,667 & 2,201 \\\hline \text { June } & 2,378 & 2,122 & 2,663 \\\hline \text { July } & 2,217 & 2,206 & 2,055 \\\hline \text { August } & 2,445 & 1,869 & 1,678 \\\hline \text { September } & 1,894 & 2,441 & 1,845 \\\hline \text { October } & 1,922 & 2,291 & 2,065 \\\hline \text { November } & 2,431 & 2,364 & 2,147 \\\hline \text { December } & 2,274 & 2,189 & 2,451 \\\hline\end{array}$$ The director needs time series method for forecasting the number of items to be checked out during the next month. Find the best simple moving average forecast you can. Decide what is meant by 'best' and justify your decision.

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Definitions:

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