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What Are David and Oleszek Measuring When They Track the Way

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What are David and Oleszek measuring when they track the way a member of a Congress votes in terms of his or her party?


Definitions:

Root Mean Square Error

A measure of the differences between values predicted by a model and the values observed, squared and averaged.

Shiller Real Home Price Index

An index that tracks inflation-adjusted changes in the price of residential real estate in the United States over time.

Simple Moving Average

An arithmetic mean calculated by adding recent closing prices of an asset and then dividing that by the number of time periods in the calculation average.

Double Exponential Smoothing Model

A forecasting technique that applies exponential smoothing twice to account for trends in time series data.

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