The Department Manager Using a Combination of Methods Has Forecast

question 104

Essay

The department manager using a combination of methods has forecast sales of toasters at a local department store. Calculate the MAD for the manager's forecast. Compare the manager's forecast against a naive forecast. Which is better?
$\begin{array}{|l|l|l|}\hline\text { Month } & \text { Unit Sales } &\text { Manager's }\\&&\text { Forecast } \\\hline \text { January } & 52 \\\hline \text { February } & 61 \\\hline \text { March } & 73 \\\hline \text { April } & 79 \\\hline \text { May } & 66 \\\hline \text { June } & 51 \\\hline \text { July } & 47 & 50 \\\hline \text { August } & 44 & 55 \\\hline \text { September } & 30 & 52 \\\hline \text { October } & 55 & 42 \\\hline \text { November } & 74 & 60 \\\hline \text { December } & 125 & 75 \\\hline\end{array}$

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Definitions:

First lumbar vertebra

The topmost vertebra of the lumbar section of the spine, which supports the lower back.

Gyri

The ridges of brain matter between the sulci; also called convolutions.

Sulci

The grooves on the surface of the cerebrum.

Gray matter

The dark-colored regions of the brain and spinal cord consisting mainly of neuronal cell bodies and dendrites, involved in processing and integrating information.