The Dean of a School of Business Is Forecasting Total

question 32

Multiple Choice

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Enrollment } \\\hline \text { Four years ago } & 2000 \\\hline \text { Three years ago } & 2200 \\\hline \text { Two years ago } & 2800 \\\hline \text { Last year } & 3000 \\\hline\end{array}$$
What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if last year's smoothed forecast was 2,600?

• A) 2,600
• B) 2,760
• C) 2,800
• D) 3,840
• E) 3,000

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Definitions:

Groupthink

A psychological phenomenon where the desire for harmony or conformity within a group leads to an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome.

Harmony

A state of agreement, peacefulness, or concord between individuals or groups; also refers to a pleasing combination of musical notes.

Cognitive Dissonance

A psychological state that occurs when an individual holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values at the same time, often leading to discomfort and a drive to reduce the inconsistency.

Social Pressure

The influence that is exerted by society or a social group on an individual, encouraging conformity to social norms or expectations.