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The Head of Operations for a Movie Studio Wants to Determine

question 88

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The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. (Due to budgeting constraints, only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script 1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run, but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000, but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000. On the other hand, she feels that script 2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000, but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000. If successful, its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000, but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000. Of course, in either case, if the original movie were a flop, then no sequel would be produced.
What is the probability that script 1 will be a success, but its sequel will not?


Definitions:

Return On Assets Ratio

A financial metric used to evaluate a company's efficiency in generating profits from its assets, calculated by dividing net income by total assets.

Debt And Equity Financing

Ways in which a company raises funds through borrowing (debt) or selling ownership shares (equity).

ROE

Return on Equity, a measure of financial performance calculated by dividing net income by shareholder's equity.

ROA

Return on assets (ROA) is a financial ratio that shows the percentage of profit a company earns in relation to its overall resources.

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