The Head of Operations for a Movie Studio Wants to Determine

question 160

Multiple Choice

The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. (Due to budgeting constraints, only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script 1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run, but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000, but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000. On the other hand, she feels that script 2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000, but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000. If successful, its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000, but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000. Of course, in either case, if the original movie were a flop, then no sequel would be produced.
What would be the total payoff if script 1 were a success, but its sequel were not?

• A)$15,000,000
• B)$10,000,000
• C)$9,000,000
• D)$5,000,000
• E)$−1,000,000

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Definitions:

Milgram Experiment

A psychological experiment conducted by Stanley Milgram in the 1960s to study obedience to authority, where participants were instructed to administer electric shocks to another person.

Stanford University Prison Experiment

A psychological study conducted by Philip Zimbardo in 1971 at Stanford University, where students were assigned roles of prisoners and guards to explore the effects of perceived power.

Generalization

Drawing a conclusion about a certain characteristic of a population based on a sample from it.

Logical Support

The provision of reasons or evidence to justify a claim or argument.