If Asked,"Which Is More Probable? A

question 219

Multiple Choice

If asked,"Which is more probable? A.Number one ranked golfer Luke Donald will not be in the lead after the first round of golf of a tournament but will win the tournament.B.Number one ranked golfer Luke Donald will not be in the lead after the first round of golf of a tournament." Most people would answer A,although A is less likely to be true than B.According to Tversky and Kahneman,such faulty conclusions are based on

• A) the representativeness heuristic.
• B) convergent thinking.
• C) divergent thinking.
• D) the framing effect.

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Definitions:

Trade

The exchange of goods, services, or both, between two or more parties.

Corn

A large grain plant native to the Americas, grown for its edible kernels.

Comparative Advantage Theory

The principle that countries or individuals can benefit from specializing in the production of goods they can produce most efficiently, even if they are not the most efficient producer overall.

Agricultural Goods

Products derived from agriculture, such as crops and livestock, used primarily for food, fiber, and raw materials.