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A way to make forecasts more responsive to the most recent actual occurrences is to use
P(A ∪ B)
The probability that at least one of two events A or B occurs.
Independent Events
Two or more events whose outcomes do not affect each other.
P(A ∪ B)
Represents the probability of the occurrence of at least one of two events A or B.
Mutually Exclusive
Two events that cannot occur at the same time, meaning the occurrence of one event precludes the other.
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