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Philip Tetlock
A political scientist known for his work on the accuracy of political forecasts and the psychology of judgment.
Overconfidence
Refers to the cognitive bias where an individual's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy.
Economic and Military Predictions
The process of forecasting future economic trends and military capabilities or situations based on current data and trends.
Correlational Design
A type of research methodology that examines the relationship between two or more variables without manipulating them.
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