The Head of Operations for a Movie Studio Wants to Determine

question 88

Multiple Choice

The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. (Due to budgeting constraints, only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script 1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run, but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000, but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000. On the other hand, she feels that script 2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000, but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000. If successful, its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000, but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000. Of course, in either case, if the original movie were a flop, then no sequel would be produced.
What is the probability that script 1 will be a success, but its sequel will not?

• A) .8
• B) .7
• C) .56
• D) .2
• E) .14

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Definitions:

Unsystematic Risk

A type of risk that affects a specific company or industry, distinct from marketwide risks.

Portfolio Beta

An indicator of the level of fluctuation, or inherent risk, within an investment portfolio relative to the overall market.

Overall Market

Refers to the aggregated performance of all investment assets or stocks within a particular market or index.

Greater Than One

A mathematical condition indicating that a number or quantity is larger than the value of one.