Suppose We Observe the Three-Year Treasury Security Rate (₁R₃) to Be

question 112

Multiple Choice

Suppose we observe the three-year Treasury security rate (₁R₃) to be 11 percent, the expected one-year rate next year E(₂r₁) to be 4 percent, and the expected one-year rate the following year E(₃r₁) to be 5 percent. If the unbiased expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates holds, what is the one-year Treasury security rate, ₁R₁?

• A) 18.57 percent
• B) 10.19 percent
• C) 23.19 percent
• D) 25.24 percent

---

Definitions:

State Uncertainty

Refers to the unpredictability associated with the conditions or status of a system, environment, or entity in which outcomes are impossible to foresee accurately.

Response Uncertainty

The lack of predictability or assurance about the reactions or outcomes resulting from a decision, action, or situation.

Analyzer Response

A method or approach in analyzing and responding to data or situations that relies on careful consideration and examination.

Environmental Uncertainty

The lack of predictability and stability in an organization's external environment, affecting its operations and strategy.