The Operations Manager for a Well-Drilling Company Must Recommend Whether

question 70

Multiple Choice

The operations manager for a well-drilling company must recommend whether to build a new facility, expand his existing one, or do nothing. He estimates that long-run profits (in $000) will vary with the amount of precipitation (rainfall) as follows: $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | } \hline { \text { ALTERNATIVE } } & { \text { PRECIPITATION } } \\\hline& \text { LOW } & \text { NORMAL } & \text { HIGH } \\\hline \text { Do Nothing } & - 100 & 100 & 300 \\\hline \text { Expand } & 350 & 500 & 200 \\\hline \text { Build New } & 750 & 300 & 0 \\\hline\end{array}$$ If he uses the Laplace criterion, which alternative will he decide to select?

• A) do nothing
• B) expand
• C) build new
• D) either do nothing or expand
• E) either expand or build new

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Definitions:

Random

Lacking any pattern, plan, or purpose; occurring by chance.

Major Earthquake

A major earthquake is a natural disaster characterized by a significant seismic event with a magnitude generally 7.0 or higher on the Richter scale, often causing widespread damage.

Expected Number

In statistics, refers to the predicted count of occurrences in an experiment or survey under the assumption of a particular model or hypothesis.

Probability

The measure of the likelihood that a given event will occur, expressed as a number between 0 and 1.