The Head of Operations for a Movie Studio Wants to Determine

question 88

Multiple Choice

The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production. (Due to budgeting constraints, only one new picture can be undertaken at this time.) She feels that script 1 has a 70 percent chance of earning about $10,000,000 over the long run, but a 30 percent chance of losing $2,000,000. If this movie is successful, then a sequel could also be produced, with an 80 percent chance of earning $5,000,000, but a 20 percent chance of losing $1,000,000. On the other hand, she feels that script 2 has a 60 percent chance of earning $12,000,000, but a 40 percent chance of losing $3,000,000. If successful, its sequel would have a 50 percent chance of earning $8,000,000, but a 50 percent chance of losing $4,000,000. Of course, in either case, if the original movie were a flop, then no sequel would be produced.
What is the probability that script 1 will be a success, but its sequel will not?

• A) .8
• B) .7
• C) .56
• D) .2
• E) .14

---

Definitions:

Marginal Cost

The additional expense incurred from producing one more unit of a good or service, which is crucial for decision-making in production and pricing.

Tennessee Valley Authority

a U.S. government agency established in 1933 to address a wide range of environmental, economic, and technological issues in the Tennessee Valley region.

Government Owned

Entities or assets that are owned, controlled, or operated by the government or a public authority.

Peak Efficiency

Peak efficiency is the maximum operational effectiveness where a process or system operates at its highest level of productivity with minimal waste.