As a Consultant You Have Been Asked to Generate a Unit

question 97

Multiple Choice

As a consultant you have been asked to generate a unit demand forecast for a product for year 2009 using exponential smoothing.The actual demand in year 2008 was 750.The forecast demand in year 2008 was 960.Using this data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.3,which of the following is the resulting year 2009 forecast value?

• A)766
• B)813
• C)897
• D)1,023
• E)1,120

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Definitions:

Slippery Slope Fallacy

A logical fallacy that occurs when an argument falsely assumes that one action will lead to a series of other actions resulting in a negative outcome, without providing evidence for such a causal chain.

Fallacy Of Composition

The erroneous reasoning that what is true of the parts must also be true of the whole.

Fallacy Of Division

A logical fallacy that occurs when one assumes that something true of a whole must also be true of its parts.

Hasty Generalization

A logical fallacy where a conclusion is drawn from insufficient evidence or sample size.