You Are a Hotel Manager and You Are Considering Four

question 2

Multiple Choice

You are a hotel manager and you are considering four projects that yield different payoffs,depending upon whether there is an economic boom or a recession.The potential payoffs and corresponding payoffs are summarized in the following table. $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | } \hline \text { Praject } & \begin{array} { l } \text { Bamn } \\( 50 \% ) \end{array} & \begin{array} { l } \text { Recession } \\( 50 \% ) \end{array} \\\hline \text { A } & \$ 20 & - \$ 10 \\\hline \text { B } & - \$ 10 & \$ 20 \\\hline \text { C } & \$ 30 & - \$ 30 \\\hline \text { D } & \$ 50 & \$ 50 \\\hline\end{array}$$ The variance in the returns of project D is:

• A) 900.
• B) 225.
• C) 0.
• D) 1,600.

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Definitions:

Availability Heuristic

A mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a person’s mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision.

Overconfidence Effect

The cognitive bias where an individual's subjective confidence in their judgments is greater than their objective accuracy.

Availability Heuristic

A cognitive shortcut based on the first examples that surface in one's thoughts when considering a particular topic, idea, strategy, or choice.