What Is His Expected Value of Perfect Information

question 31

Multiple Choice

What is his expected value of perfect information?

• A)$187,000.
• B)$132,000.
• C)$123,000.
• D)$65,000.
• E)$55,000.
• The head of operations for a movie studio wants to determine which of two new scripts they should select for their next major production.She feels that script #1 has a 70% chance of earning $100 million over the long run,but a 30% chance of losing $20 million.If this movie is successful,then a sequel could also be produced,with an 80% chance of earning $50 million,but a 20% chance of losing $10 million.On the other hand,she feels that script #2 has a 60 % chance of earning $120 million,but a 40% chance of losing $30 million.If successful,its sequel would have a 50% chance of earning $80 million and a 50% chance of losing $40 million.As with the first script,if the original movie is a "flop",then no sequel would be produced.

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Definitions:

English Auction

A type of auction in which the price starts low and is progressively bid upwards, with the highest bid at the end winning the item.

Rational Self-Interest

The principle that individuals tend to make decisions that maximize their own utility or benefit.

Collude

To conspire or work together secretly, especially in order to cheat or deceive others.

Dutch Auction

A type of auction where the auctioneer starts with a high asking price which is lowered until some participant is willing to accept the auctioneer’s price, or a predetermined minimum price is reached.