When Experts Made Predictions About U

question 9

Short Answer

When experts made predictions about U.S. and world politics over the next several years, their accuracy was generally__________, and they were __________ confident in their predictions.

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Definitions:

Alpha

The pre-determined significance level in hypothesis testing, often set at 0.05, which defines the likelihood of observing a result at least as extreme as the one seen in the sample data if the null hypothesis is true.

T-statistic

A type of statistic used in hypothesis testing, calculated as the ratio of the departure of an estimated parameter from its hypothesized value to its standard error.

Critical Value

A threshold in hypothesis testing, which the test statistic must exceed to reject the null hypothesis.

Level of Significance

A threshold in hypothesis testing, below which the null hypothesis is rejected, commonly set at values like 0.05 or 0.01.