A time series for the years 1996-2001 is shown below. 
The forecasts for the years 2002-2004 with three smoothing constant values are:
With w = .2,F2002 = F2003 = F2004 = 125.60
With w = .5,F2002 = F2003 = F2004 = 126.75
With w = .6,F2002 = F2003 = F2004 = 126.55
Compare each of the three sets of forecasts with the actual values for 2002-2004 given in the accompanying table,and compute the mean absolute deviation (MAD)for each model.Which model is best? 
Definitions:
Charisma
A personal quality that gives an individual influence or authority over large numbers of people, often characterized by magnetic charm or appeal.
A Spark
A moment or event that initiates inspiration, motivation, or the beginning of a new idea or path.
Flammable Material
Substances capable of catching fire and burning quickly, posing risks to safety and property.
Power
The ability to influence or control the behavior of people or the course of events.
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