The Alternatives 1 and 2 in the Following Payoff Table

question 130

Essay

The alternatives 1 and 2 in the following payoff table represent the two possible manufacturing strategies that the EKA manufacturing company can adopt.The level of demand affects the success of both strategies.The states of nature (S_i)represent the levels of demand for the company products.S₁,S₂ and S₃ characterize high,medium,and low demand,respectively.The payoff values are in thousands of dollars. $$\begin{array} { l c c c } & { \text { States of nature } } \\& \mathrm { s } _ { 1 } & \mathrm {~s} _ { 2 } & \mathrm {~s} _ { 3 } \\\text { Alternative (strategy) 1 } & 10 & 80 & 70 \\\text { Alternative (strategy) 2 } & 60 & 120 & 50\end{array}$$ The management believes that the weather conditions significantly affect the level of demand.48 monthly sales reports are randomly selected.These monthly sales reports showed 15 months with high demand,28 months with medium demand,and 5 months with low demand.12 of the 15 months with high demand had favorable weather conditions.14 of the 28 months with medium demand had favorable weather conditions.Only 1 of the 5 months with low demand had favorable weather conditions.
-What is the probability that weather conditions are poor,given that the demand is high? What is the probability that weather conditions are poor,given that the demand is medium? What is the probability that weather conditions are poor,given that the demand is low?

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Definitions:

Gross Profit

The disparity between income generated and the expenses incurred in producing a product or delivering a service, prior to subtracting costs for overheads, employee salaries, taxes, and interest expenses.

Sales Discounts

Reductions granted from the listed price of goods or services, often used as a marketing strategy to encourage early payment or increase sales volume.

2/10, N/30

A payment term indicating that a buyer can take a 2% discount on the invoice amount if payment is made within 10 days; otherwise, the net amount is due in 30 days.

Sales Return

goods returned by the customers to the seller after the sale, reducing the gross sales figure.