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A Major Advantage Is That RiskMetrics Directly Provides a Worst-Case

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A major advantage is that RiskMetrics directly provides a worst-case scenario number, while this is not the case for back simulation.


Definitions:

Exponential Smoothing Model

A time series forecasting technique that applies weighting factors which decrease exponentially to past observations.

Mean Absolute Percentage Error

A measure used in statistics to assess the accuracy of a forecast or prediction, calculated as the average of absolute percentages of errors between predicted and observed values.

Smoothing Constant

A smoothing constant is a parameter in exponential smoothing used to control the level of smoothing applied to a time series.

Holt-Winters Additive Model

A forecasting technique that applies weighted averages and seasonality to predict future data points.

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