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(Requires Appendix material)The long-run, stationary state solution of an AD(p,q)model, which can be written as A(L)Yt = ?0 + c(L)Xt-1 + ut, where = 1, and = -?j, cj = ?j, can be found by setting L=1 in the two lag polynomials. Explain. Derive the long-run solution for the estimated ADL(4,4)of the change in the inflation rate on unemployment:
t = 1.32 - .36 ?Inft-1 - 0.34vInft-2 + 0.7?Inft-3 - 0.3?Inft-4
-2.68Unempt-1 + 3.43Unempt-2 - 1.04Unempt-3 + .07Unempt-4
Assume that the inflation rate is constant in the long-run and calculate the resulting unemployment rate. What does the solution represent? Is it reasonable to assume that this long-run solution is constant over the estimation period 1962-1999? If not, how could you detect the instability?
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