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In General,a Moving Average with a Base Equal to the Duration

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In general,a moving average with a base equal to the duration of a strong cyclical or seasonal pattern will be highly useful in dampening fluctuations caused by the pattern.


Definitions:

Population Proportion

The fraction or percentage of a total population that possesses a particular characteristic.

Null Hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis that assumes no significant difference or effect in a given set of observations.

Point Estimate

A single value or statistic that serves as the best guess or best estimate of an unknown population parameter.

Population Proportion

The fraction of members in a statistical population that meet a specified characteristic or criteria, often estimated using sample data.

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