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Instruction 14-16
Given Below Are Microsoft Excel Outputs for Various

question 134

Multiple Choice

Instruction 14-16
Given below are Microsoft Excel outputs for various estimated autoregressive (AR) models for a company’s real operating revenues (in billions of dollars) from 1985 to 2008. From the data, you also know that the real operating revenues for 2006, 2007 and 2008 are 11.7909, 11.7757 and 11.5537, respectively.
AR (1) Model:
 Coefficients  Standard Error  t Stat p-value  Intercept 0.18020.39800.45280.6553 XLag1 1.01120.049720.35260.0000\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & \text { Coefficients } & \text { Standard Error } & \text { t Stat } & p \text {-value } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 0.1802 & 0.3980 & 0.4528 & 0.6553 \\\hline \text { XLag1 } & 1.0112 & 0.0497 & 20.3526 & 0.0000 \\\hline\end{array}

AR (2) Model:
 Coefficients  Standard Error  t Stat p-value  Intercept 0.30050.44080.68170.5036 X Lag 1 1.17320.23474.99800.0001 X Lag 2 0.18300.25070.73000.4743\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & \text { Coefficients } & \text { Standard Error } & \text { t Stat } & p \text {-value } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 0.3005 & 0.4408 & 0.6817 & 0.5036 \\\hline \text { X Lag 1 } & 1.1732 & 0.2347 & 4.9980 & 0.0001 \\\hline \text { X Lag 2 } & -0.1830 & 0.2507 & -0.7300 & 0.4743 \\\hline\end{array}

AR (3) Model:
 Coefficients  Standard Error  t Stat p-value  Intercept 0.31300.51440.60850.5509 XLag1 1.17370.24654.76170.0002 XLag2 0.06940.37310.18600.8547 XLag3 0.12210.28200.43300.6704\begin{array}{|l|l|l|l|l|}\hline & \text { Coefficients } & \text { Standard Error } & \text { t Stat } & p \text {-value } \\\hline \text { Intercept } & 0.3130 & 0.5144 & 0.6085 & 0.5509 \\\hline \text { XLag1 } & 1.1737 & 0.2465 & 4.7617 & 0.0002 \\\hline \text { XLag2 } & -0.0694 & 0.3731 & -0.1860 & 0.8547 \\\hline \text { XLag3 } & -0.1221 & 0.2820 & -0.4330 & 0.6704 \\\hline\end{array}

-Referring to Instruction 14-16 and using a 5% level of significance,what is the appropriate AR model for the company's real operating revenue?

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Personal beliefs or views held by individuals, which may vary greatly and are subjective in nature.

Time-limited

An attribute or condition that has a restricted duration, not lasting or intended to last indefinitely.

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Describes an official order or commission to do something, often with the authority to carry out specific policies or procedures.

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