An Appliance Dealer Must Decide How Many (If Any)new Microwave

question 23

Essay

An appliance dealer must decide how many (if any)new microwave ovens to order for next month.The ovens cost $220 and sell for $300.Because the oven company is coming out with a new product line in two months,any ovens not sold next month will have to be sold at the dealer's half price clearance sale.Additionally,the appliance dealer feels he suffers a loss of $25 for every oven demanded when he is out of stock.On the basis of past months' sales data,the dealer estimates the probabilities of monthly demand (D)for 0,1,2,or 3 ovens to be .3,.4,.2,and .1,respectively.
The dealer is considering conducting a telephone survey on the customers' attitudes towards microwave ovens.The results of the survey will either be favorable (F),unfavorable (U)or no opinion (N).The dealer's probability estimates for the survey results based on the number of units demanded are:

a.What is the dealer's optimal decision without conducting the survey?
b.What is the EVPI?
c.Based on the survey results what is the optimal decision strategy for the dealer?
d.What is the maximum amount he should pay for this survey?

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Definitions:

Control Limits

The boundaries in control charts that indicate the limits of expected variations in a stable process.

Pooled Standard Deviation

A method for estimating standard deviation across two or more groups that assumes equal variances.

Sample Means

Sample means are the average values calculated from subsets (samples) taken from a larger population.

Population Standard Deviation

A measure of the dispersion or variability of all data points in an entire population, signifying the spread from the population mean.