An Investment Advisor Recommends the Purchase of Shares in Infogenics

question 102

Essay

An investment advisor recommends the purchase of shares in Infogenics, Inc. He has made the following predictions:
P(Stock goes up 20% | Rise in GDP) = .6
P(Stock goes up 20% | Level GDP) = .5
P(Stock goes up 20% | Fall in GDP) = .4
An economist has predicted that the probability of a rise in the GDP is 30%, whereas the probability of a fall in the GDP is 40%.
a. Draw a tree diagram to represent this multiple-step experiment.
b. What is the probability that the stock will go up 20%?
c. We have been informed that the stock has gone up 20%. What is the probability of a rise or fall in the GDP?

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Definitions:

Theorist

A person who proposes or develops abstract concepts, ideas, or frameworks for understanding a range of phenomena.

Cognitive Perspective

An approach in psychology that focuses on the mental processes involved in knowledge acquisition, thinking, and understanding.

Predictions

Statements about future events or conditions that are expected to happen based on current evidence or hypotheses.

Classical Conditioning

A learning process where a neutral stimulus becomes associated with a meaningful stimulus and acquires the capacity to elicit similar responses.