Super Cola Is Considering the Introduction of a Root Beer

question 6

Essay

Super Cola is considering the introduction of a root beer drink. The company feels that the probability of the new drink being successful is .6. The payoff table is as follows. Super Cola has a choice of two research firms to obtain information for this new product. Stanton Marketing has market indicators I₁ and I₂ for which P(I₁|S₁) = .7 and P(I₁|S₂) = .4. New World Marketing has indicators J₁ and J₂ for which P(J₁|S₁) = .6 and P(J₁|S₂) = .3. (Be sure to compute probabilities to the third decimal place.)
a.What is the optimal decision if neither research firm is used?
b.Compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).
c.Find the EVSIs for Stanton and New World.
d.If both research firms charge $5,000, which firm should be hired?
e.If Stanton charges $10,000 and New World charges $5,000, which firm should Super Cola hire?

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Definitions:

Non-native Species

Organisms introduced into new habitats where they are not originally from, often causing significant harm to the native ecosystem due to lack of natural predators.

Kudzu

A fast-growing, invasive vine known for its ability to cover trees and shrubs rapidly, native to Asia but also found in parts of the United States.

Pioneer Community

The initial group of organisms colonizing an area that was previously uninhabited or where the ecosystem has been disturbed.

Ecological Succession

The process by which the structure of a biological community evolves over time, often following environmental disturbances.