Community General Hospital Finds Itself Treating Many Bicycle Accident Victims

question 30

Essay

Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour period is shown below:
$\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline \text { Day } & \text { Bicycle Victims } \\\hline 1 & 6 \\\hline 2 & 8 \\\hline 3 & 4 \\\hline 4 & 7 \\\hline 5 & 9 \\\hline 6 & 9 \\\hline 7 & 7 \\\hline\end{array}$
a.
What is the forecast for day 4 using a moving average model with AP = 3?
b.With an alpha value of 0.5 and a starting forecast in day 4 equal to the actual data, what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 8?
c.What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for days 5 to 7 for an exponentially smoothed forecasting model with an alpha value of 0.5 and a starting forecast in day 4 equal to the actual data?
d.What is the tracking signal for days 5 to 7 for an exponentially smoothed forecasting model with an alpha value of 0.5 and a starting forecast in day 4 equal to the actual data?

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Definitions:

Cultural Contexts

The various social, historical, and environmental factors influencing how individuals interpret behaviors, events, and notions, affecting communication and interaction.

Neurotic

Relating to, constituting, or suffering from a mental condition that involves excessive anxiety, moodiness, worry, or obsessive behaviors without psychosis.

Agreeable

A personality trait characterized by being friendly, cooperative, and easy to get along with.

Conscientious

Characterized by the desire to do one’s work or duty well and thoroughly.