Does the Answer to Question 72 Match Your Intuition? Explain

question 25

Essay

Does the answer to Question 72 match your intuition? Explain why or why not.
In this example we are estimating the net present value of introducing a new drug to market.We have the following information about the market:
· The market size is 1,000,000 and is projected to grow at an average 5%,with a standard deviation of 1%,over the next ten years.
· The market share captured at entry is projected to be between 20% and 70%,with most likely value 40%.
· Three competitors may enter the market in the future,with each one having a 40% probability of entry per year.
· For each new competitor per year,the market share goes down by 20%.
· The marginal profit per unit is $1.80.
· We want to evaluate the project over ten years,using a discount rate of 10%.

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