Instruction 14-4
a Contractor Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model to Forecast

question 62

Multiple Choice

Instruction 14-4
A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters,using quarterly data on number of contracts during the 3-year period from 2008 to 2010.The following is the resulting regression equation:
$\log _ { 10 } \hat { Y } = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q _ { 1 } + 1.28 Q _ { 2 } + 0.617 Q _ { 3 }$
Where
$$\hat { Y }$$ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2008.
Q₁ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₂ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q₃ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Instruction 14-4,using the regression equation,which of the following values is the best forecast for the number of contracts in the third quarter of 2011?

• A)133,352
• B)421,697
• C)49,091
• D)1,482,518

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Definitions:

Retained Earnings

The portion of net income left over for the business after it has paid out dividends to its shareholders, often reinvested into the business.

Comprehensive Loss

Reflects the total net expenses, including all losses and expenses, surpassing the total revenues and gains over a period, thereby showcasing a negative net income on the financial statements.

Other Comprehensive Income

Earnings that are not included in net income on the income statement and relate to gains and losses that have not yet been realized.

Retained Earnings

Retained earnings represent the cumulative amount of a company's profits that are reinvested in the business, rather than distributed to shareholders as dividends.